Previewing The Third Window of Friday's NCAA Tournament Games
Yesterday, it was the night session that started to get a little loose. We had some awesome games down the stretch with UK/Davidson, San Diego State/Houston, Buffalo/Arizona and Texas Tech/Stephen F. Austin. That can happen here today with the likes of Auburn/Charleston and Creighton/Kansas State. We should also have two blowouts though, but as we saw yesterday who the hell knows exactly what’s going on in this thing.
I’m going to try and break down these previews to four games at a time so they aren’t as clunky and less than 4,000 words. I’ll be making picks for every single NCAA Tournament game, but let me know what you like, what you hate and talk about the games @barstoolreags.
No. 8 Creighton vs No. 9 Kansas State – 6:50 pm, TNT
Line: Pick
The Marcus Foster revenge game. I’m sure you know by now, but Marcus Foster started his career at Kansas State. In fact he was damn good there, winning Big 12 Rookie of the Year and named to a preseason All-Big 12 team. Then he had a fallout with Bruce Weber during his sophomore year and was essentially forced out/transferred to Creighton. He’s turned into a dynamic scorer at Creighton and paired with Khyri Thomas is one of the more fun 1-2 combos out there. Part of that is due to Creighton’s offensive scheme. McDermott is awesome at bringing up high ball screens, setting doubles while one dives to the rim and the other pops. He sets a double and then a side screen. It’s a ton of fun to watch. Now that said, Kansas State can defend the pick and roll with its ability to switch 1-5 and having a guy in Barry Brown that can stick with just about every guard in the country. Kansas State also has its own mismatch in Dean Wade, who is one of the most underrated players in the country. Wade, a 6’10” small forward, is going to be a gametime decision though. If he plays, Kansas State can match what Creighton wants to do from a versatility standpoint. Look for Creighton to try and get out and run – even with Kansas State dropping back on shot attempts.
Bracket pick: Creighton
ATS pick: Creighton
No. 3 Michigan State vs No. 14 Bucknell – 7:10 pm, CBS
Line: Michigan State -14
Bucknell is one of the better midmajors out there. Part of the reason for that is Zach Thomas is so damn good at getting to the free throw line. In fact he leads the country in free throw attempts with 299 on the season. Throw in guys like Nana Foulland and you have a pretty solid 1-2 up front. Bucknell runs so much of its offense through the post for that exact reason. It makes sense and is great, except for one thing. Michigan State has roughly 82 guys they can throw in the post, including two lottery picks in Jaren Jackson Jr., and Miles Bridges. Look for Thomas to try and draw fouls against Jackson early – especially since Jackson is prone to being in foul trouble. On the flipside, Michigan State can beat you a couple of different ways. They can stretch you out with the way Winston is shooting the ball this year. They can play through the post. They can go hi-lo. It’s a bad matchup for Bucknell.
Bracket pick: Michigan State
ATS pick: Michigan State
No. 1 Xavier vs No. 16 Texas Southern – 7:20 pm, TBS
Line: Xavier -19
This actually isn’t a great matchup for Xavier because of Trae Jefferson. If there’s one thing that beats Xavier this year it’s those shifty guards that can attack off the bounce. That’s exactly what Trae Jefferson does and a reason he can give Goodin/Marshall some trouble. That said, Xavier is still an elite offensive team and Texas Southern really doesn’t have an answer for Trevon Bluiett. This could be an important game for Bluiett to get back on track after struggling against Providence in the last game. If he can get rolling in the NCAA Tournament, we’ve seen what Xavier can do. Don’t be surprised to see Xavier run its 1-3-1 today.
Bracket pick: Xavier
ATS pick: Texas Southern
No. 4 Auburn vs No. 13 College of Charleston – 7:27 pm, TruTV
Line: Auburn -10
Both of these teams are efficient offensively, but get there two different ways. Auburn wants to push tempo, get 80 possessions in a game and run and gun. It’s incredibly fun to watch, especially since they have talent with guys like Mustapha Heron and Jared Harper among others. Charleston on the other hand wants to slow the game down, run the offense and more importantly draw fouls getting to the hoop. Auburn looks to shoot a bunch of threes, ranking 58th in the country in 3PA/FGA, while Charleston ranks 59th in the country in point percentage from the free throw line. Here’s the thing with Charleston though. They have the guys that can go score. They have a three-headed monster in Chealey, Riller and Brantley that can give Auburn some fits. The other thing here is Charleston takes care of the ball. Auburn wants to turn defense into offense – looking for live ball turnovers and then getting out and running. Charleston takes care of the ball. It ranks 10th nationally in turnover percentage and arguably more important it ranks 2nd in steal percentage. Those turnovers aren’t going to be live ball turnovers.
Bracket pick: College of Charleston
ATS pick: College of Charleston